Guides

Guides

What the charts mean, what they do not, and how to use a regime model without fooling yourself.

• 4 min readHidden Markov Models for Crypto Regimes ExplainedLearn how a 3-state hidden Markov model estimates bull, chop, and bear regime probabilities from public Binance USDT return history on your iPhone.
• 4 min readBacktest Crypto Regime Models Without Look-AheadSimulate systematic crypto regime rules against buy-and-hold using closed-bar execution so backtest curves avoid look-ahead bias and hindsight leaks.
• 4 min read3-State, Input, Duration, and Factorial HMM GuideCompare standard 3-state, input-aware, duration-aware, and factorial hidden Markov models (Hera, Metis, Hestia, and Athena) on crypto price series.
• 3 min readHow CPI Releases and Fed Tone Shift Crypto RegimesTest how US CPI inflation prints and Federal Reserve policy tone interact with crypto volatility regimes using the Kronos and Demeter data agents.
• 3 min readOn-Device Crypto Sentiment with Core ML FinBERTScore public GDELT crypto news headlines and custom text locally on iPhone with Core ML FinBERT, and feed sentiment into input-aware regime models.
• 4 min readAuction-Market Signals in Crypto: POC and LVNUnderstand Point of Control reversion, Low-Volume Node rejection, and balance or imbalance breakouts layered on top of crypto market regime models.
• 3 min readCrypto Backtest Risk Guards: CUSUM and Crash StopsTest CUSUM drift detection, EMA crash guards, flash-crash filters, and hard stops in crypto simulations to study drawdown control vs missed rebounds.
• 3 min readTesting Crypto Seasonality and S&P 500 OverlaysEvaluate calendar anomalies and S&P 500 equity context on Binance USDT pairs with Zeus, Tyche, Hermes, and Helios agents plus strategy blend tests.
• 4 min readHow to Read a Strategy Log and Spot OverfittingAudit every simulated BUY and SELL rule in a strategy execution log to distinguish genuine regime persistence from parameter tuning and lucky outliers.